Tehran Stock Market efficiency: A quantile autoregression approach

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the price efficiency of the Tehran Stock Market. For this aim, we used daily stock prices of 30 large companies on the Stock Exchange. In the first stage, a unit root test with the endogenous break and without a structural break was performed using augmented dickey-fuller test (ADF) tests and Phillips-perron (PP) tests. The results indicate that the price of 9 companies has a random walk process with intercept and 21 companies follow a random walk without intercept and trend component process which is known as the pure random walk process. Thus, considering the ADF and PP tests, most companies’ stock prices are efficient. Quantile autoregression results in the second stage show that the stock prices in the middle price deciles have weak efficiency, but in the lower and upper price deciles, the stock price does not follow the weak efficiency conditions. So, if the stock price deviates (up or down) from the long-term mean, the market becomes inefficient, but when the stock price is at the median level, the market is efficient. The general conclusion is that median prices are the long-term average prices that change over time, and stock prices tend to move toward that price.