Technomorphology, innovation and energy analysis: III. Technological innovation and economic change

Abstract

This paper reviews Mensch's claim that there are periods which occur at regular intervals during which a series of basic or strategic innovations begin a new phase of economic prosperity, which itself leads to recession, depression, and further revival as cycle follows cycle. The geography of strategic innovation is briefly considered. A more orthodox example of technological planning — founded on engineering systems analysis — is considered, as employed by the International Energy Agency in formulating policy over a forty-year period. It is concluded that this latter type of theory provides a reliable method of classifying the likely important innovations in the near future. However, Mensch's theory should be considered and tested if possible, because if valid it would enable the accuracy of long-term planning to be greatly improved. It is concluded that technomorphology provides a useful auxiliary tool for technological planning and limited-term forecasting.