Technology-side carbon abatement cost curves for China’s power generation sector

Abstract

China is among the largest emitters of carbon dioxide (CO2), worldwide Thus, its emissions mitigation is of global concern. The power generation sector is responsible for nearly half of China’s total CO2 emissions and plays a key role in emissions mitigation. This study is an integrated evaluation of abatement technologies, including both low-carbon power generation technologies and retrofitting options for coal power plants. We draw marginal abatement cost curves for these technologies using the conservation supply curve method. Using scenario analysis for the years 2015 to 2030, we discuss the potential performance of abatement technologies. Marginal costs for the analyzed abatement technologies range from RMB − 357.41/ton CO2 to RMB 927.95/ton CO2. Furthermore, their cumulative mitigation potential relative to the baseline scenario could reach 35 billion tons of CO2 in 2015–2030, with low-carbon power generation technologies and coal power abatement technologies contributing 55% and 45% of the total mitigation, respectively. Our case study of China demonstrates the power generation sector’s great potential to mitigate global emissions, and we suggest nuclear power, hydropower, and the comprehensive retrofitting of coal power as key technology options for the low-carbon transition of the energy system and long-term emissions mitigation strategies.