Abstract

Despite several decades of dedicated R&D, fusion, a potentially world-changing energy source, remains decades away from commercialisation. The majority of development thus far has been via publicly-funded programmes led by government laboratories focused on scientific research and in which commercialisation strategy and innovation play a minor role. Generally, such programmes follow a linear model of innovation in which commercial aspects are not considered until later in development. In consequence and without intention, devices not well-suited for commercial application are being pursued. In recent years, however, privately funded fusion start-ups have emerged with the goal of accelerating the commercialisation of fusion. Fusion start-ups are, by necessity, operating on a fundamentally different model of innovation: agile innovation, whereby technology is developed flexibly and iteratively towards an explicit commercial goal. Technology Roadmapping is a method that has been effective for supporting agile innovation but thus far has had limited application to mission-led hardware development. We characterise the key features of the fusion innovation approach and create a novel Technology Roadmapping process for fusion start-ups, which is developed via a case study with Tokamak Energy Ltd. The main elements of the developed process, the resulting Technology Roadmap, and its impact are presented.

Highlights

  • Harnessing the energy from nuclear fusion has long been heralded as the solution to the world's energy problems

  • There are two types of commercial activity: those that relate to the principal goal – the demonstration of the commercial viability of fusion energy – and those that relate to the commercial exploitation of spinoffs, which can arise from in-house R&D activity

  • Fusion start-ups are compared with government-funded fusion programmes which have, far, dominated fusion development

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Summary

Introduction

Harnessing the energy from nuclear fusion has long been heralded as the solution to the world's energy problems. Delays to the ITER project, as well as the advent of new technologies and recently improved understanding of the physics of fusion plasmas suggest that alternative approaches based on smaller, simpler and cheaper devices might be possible (Costley et al, 2015, Whyte et al, 2016). Delays to the ITER project, as well as the advent of new technologies and recently improved understanding of the physics of fusion plasmas suggest that alternative approaches based on smaller, simpler and cheaper devices might be possible (Costley et al, 2015, Whyte et al, 2016)2 This notion has stimulated the emergence of more than a dozen entrepreneur-led and privately funded enterprises, here referred to as as fusion start-ups, all of which are aiming to develop fusion on a faster timescale.

Public fusion programmes and the linear model of innovation
Combining agile with lean: a model of innovation for fusion start-ups
Plotting a route to commercial fusion
Design
Technology Roadmapping
Production of a first-pass roadmap
The Tokamak Energy Roadmap
Content development
Developing the Roadmap through Workshops
Group activity
Developing the Technology Roadmap outside of workshops
The Tokamak Energy Technology Roadmap
Technology Roadmapping as an ongoing process
Outcomes and uses of Technology Roadmapping
Roadmapping to support planning and guide innovation
Managing uncertainty and risk
Future roadmap development: introduction of a commercial market layer
Generalisability of the developed framework for other potential applications
Summary
Declaration of Competing Interest
Full Text
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