Abstract
The predictions of future successful technological developments are an important task of research organizations. The extremely poor reliability of these predictions has eroded trust in the efficiency of research laboratories which, in turn, resulted in substantial decreases in and availability of research funding. The causes of poor prediction relability are discussed and ideas are presented on how to minimize this problem. By applying the presented methodology, it is shown that, in the case of strong industrial fibers, we can learn a great deal from evolutionary processes of silk fiber formation and utilize this knowledge to solve some critical environmental problems of current man-made fiber production.
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