Technology of Integrated Application of Classical Decision Making Criteria for Risk-Uncertainty Assessment of Group Systems of Preferences of Air Traffic Controllers on Error’s Dangers

Abstract

The study of individual systems of air traffic controllers’ (ATC) preferences on the dangers of characteristic errors has a positive proactive character. Group systems of preferences (GSP) reveal features of functioning of separate societies – ATC’s shifts. Individual systems of preferences m = 37 tested air traffic controllers were built. The implementation of a multi-step technology for detecting and rejecting marginal thoughts has led to a statistically consistent GSP: Kendall's concordance coefficient is W = 0.700 and is statistically significant at an unusually high level of significance for human factor research α = 1%. A decision matrix has been formed – a “cost matrix”, for the solution of which the methodology of application of classical decision-making criteria by Wald (W), Savage (S), Bayes-Laplace (B-L), Hurwitz (HW) has been implemented. Empirical preferences coincide: the values of Spearman's rank correlation coefficients are equal to \(R_{S}^{B - L - W/S}\) = 0.8922, \(R_{S}^{B - L - HW}\) = 0.9263 and are statistically significant at the level of significance α = 1%. The values of the normalized risk index of indistinguishability of error risks in group systems of advantages are equal to: \(R_{BL}^{*}\) = 0, \(R_{HW}^{*}\) = 0.19⋅10–2, \(R_{W/S}^{*}\) = 5.58⋅10–2. For the group as a whole \(R_{g}^{*}\) = 0.52⋅10–2.