Abstract
In this report the potential savings of computer-directed manufacturing systems are hypothesized. It is contended that computer-directed automation of manufacturing is a continuation of the ongoing technological progress that the United States has been experiencing. Technological progress has significantly contributed to the growth of the GNP, permitting a high rate of return on investment. It is our contention that the development of computer-based automation will yield benefits greater than those produced by conventional technological progress. However, this present paper examines cost savings rather than contribution to growth. The reduction in the production costs of the discrete manufacturing sector made possible by computer-based automation is hypothesized by assuming the existence of an automated factory, although such a factory is in reality perhaps several decades away. Many assumptions are made about costs, their components and relationships. Case studies, literature references, opinions of consultants, and other informed but conjectural judgments provide the basis for the hypothesis. The impacts of computer-directed manufacturing automation upon environment, employment, general price level, urban/rural mix, and international trade are also conjectured. A number of definitions and distinctions are made with respect to automation, productivity, technology, and related points.
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