Technology intensive trade and business cycle synchronisation: Evidence from a panel threshold regression model for India

Abstract

In recent years, the export baskets of developing economies have undergone a structural shift away from traditional exports towards more technology-intensive exports. The case of India, in particular, is important as the performance of Indian exports in terms of their productivity is now at par with that of developed countries. Since trade integration has significant implications for output comovements, we analyse whether this phenomenon of a structural shift in India’s intra-industry trade composition has had any impact on its business cycle synchronisation with its developing and developed trade partners. Using a panel threshold regression model, our estimates reveal that intra-industry trade in technology leads to a convergence in business cycle of India with only its developing country trade partners. Further, when the GDP per capita of the partner country is greater than the threshold estimate, we find a negative relationship between technology-intensive trade and output comovements.