Technology Forecasting Methods

Abstract

This study analyzes the origins and historical evolution and revolution of technology forecasting methods, a discipline that identifies the concept, assumptions and evaluates technology forecasting techniques with significant relationship between them. A variety of technology forecasting approaches, initiated in the 1950s, with the pioneering researches carried out by US department of Defense, and some researchers of The RAND Corporation. For over 1960 years, numerous technology forecasting methods have been developed and recently become a distinct field of investigation of future world. Mostly revolutionary techniques would have been to combine different methods characterized by the several disciplines, such as exploratory, normative and intuitive approaches. This paper proposes the gap of the main techniques of technology forecasting, developed over the course of time, identifying their methodological origin. Some concluding remarks and lessons learned complete the research.