Abstract

This article describes the use of the scoring model technique to forecast aircraft hazard detection technology. The various factors relating to hazard detection were determined. These factors were combined into a single parameter which describes the relation of these factors to the technology being forecasted. The method of determining the value of each factor for the various detection systems utilized in the forecast are discussed. These include factors which were normalized, others which require judgemental evaluation, and one which was computed. The results of the forecast are presented, showing that the parameter derived adequately describes the hazard detection systems on which it was based.

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