Technology Focus: History Matching and Forecasting (April 2023)

Abstract

_ This year’s history matching and forecasting selections cover topics that include performance prediction of a polymerflood pilot in a heavy oil reservoir, multivariate characterization and modeling of a paleo zone, and multiwell pressure history matching in an unconventional reservoir. The authors of paper SPE 206247 developed a history-matched reservoir simulation model for a polymerflood pilot to enhance heavy oil recovery on the Alaska North Slope. According to the authors, the viscous fingering effect in the reservoir during waterflooding and the restoration of injection conformance during polymerflooding were effectively represented. Using the history-matched model, studies were conducted to investigate the oil-recovery performance under different development strategies, with consideration for sensitivity to polymer parameter uncertainties. In paper IPTC 22034, the authors present an approach that incorporates characterization of paleo zones, parameterization of paleo-zone conductivity, and application of flow profiles as a guide in the history-matching study of a conceptual reservoir simulation model under reservoir uncertainty. The authors conclude that the modeled paleo zone acts as a baffle inducing a partial confinement of the injectors. Solving a global optimization problem to minimize the mismatch between the instantaneous shut-in pressure and treatment pressures measured in the field and simulated by the model, for all stages and all wells, is the subject of paper SPE 204162. According to the authors, the technique reduces overfitting by minimizing the number of variables used for history matching, by increasing the number of wells and stages that are simultaneously matched, and by reproducing the dominant behavior of all stages instead of capturing the detailed behavior of specific stages. Recommended additional reading SPE 210224 Rate-Transient-Analysis-Assisted Numerical History Matching and Co-Optimization of CO2 Storage and Huff ’n’ Puff Performance for a Near-Critical Gas Condensate Shale Well by Hamidreza Hamdi, University of Calgary, et al. URTeC 3724391 Fractional Dimension Rate-Transient Analysis in Unconventional Wells: Application in Multiphase Analysis, History Matching, Forecasting, and Interference Evaluation by Behnam Zanganeh, Chevron, et al. SPE 200908 Application of an Integrated Ensemble-Based History-Matching Approach—An Offshore Field Case Study by Usman Aslam, Emerson, et al.