Technologies for estimation and forecasting of photovoltaic generation output supporting stable operation of electric power system

Abstract

In recent years, Japan has rapidly extended its use of electricity obtained via photovoltaic (PV) generation. When the proportion of PV in the generation mix was small, its unpredictable output fluctuations had little effect on the supply and demand operation. However, as the role of PV in grid supply grows, predicting these fluctuations becomes increasingly necessary to ensure stable and economical operation of the electric power system. In this study, we discuss the current approaches of estimating and forecasting the PV output. © 2018 Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc.