Abstract
There is considerable interest in the prospects for a large-scale transition to hydrogen as an energy source. This paper assesses these prospects through consideration of technological transition theory and especially the likelihood of hydrogen use becoming widespread through Strategic Niche Management (SNM). The paper shows that current niches show few signs of the characteristics that are necessary for niche expansion to the extent required, and concludes that at present hydrogen technologies still need substantial R&D support resulting in a number of scientific breakthroughs before they will become viable in competitive markets.
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