Abstract
In this paper we present a novel method which enables an early and direct detection of technologies emerging from a mainstream technology due to technological speciation. This method uses variables that were originally introduced to characterize emerging technologies such as novelty, persistence, growth, and community. It is applicable to mainstream technologies and relies mainly on semantic patent analysis. We test it in the field of camera technology, which has a longstanding tradition and has been influenced by several technological generations. Based on a patent search, we develop a process that comprises three steps, starting with the extraction and evaluation of bi-grams from the patents, continuing with the identification and evaluation of patents with novel and persistent bi-grams, and concluding with the identification of application fields and technological speciation candidates. As a result, we observe several instances of technological speciation, such as the action camera, the depth camera and the dashboard camera. Our approach involves theoretical, managerial, and political implications; for example, it helps companies establish a system for the early identification and monitoring of emerging technologies.
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