Technological Import Dependence of the Russian Economy: An Assessment Using Input-Output Tables.

Abstract

—The article analyzes the level of import dependence of Russian industry in relation to the supply of intermediate consumption products from China and in general from all countries of the world. The study was carried out during the period of the increasing spread of coronavirus infection in order to determine the industries that are potentially the most vulnerable to possible disruption of foreign trade. The information base for calculations is the official data on the volume and structure of Russia’s foreign trade and the input–output tables of the WIOD. As a result of calculations using several alternative models, it was found that Russian industry, even with significant integration into the world production chains, remains sufficiently resistant to local supply shocks. The analysis of import dependence in terms of imported raw materials and components can be used in the study of any shocks in foreign trade, it makes it possible to more accurately assess the effects of trade agreements or sanctions, as well as the effect of the devaluation of the national currency.