Technological forecast of marine transportation systems 1970 to 2000

Abstract

The subject of this investigation and technological forecast is the commercial marine transportation system of the United States. The U.S. Marine Transportation Industry is portrayed within a time frame extending from 1970 to the year 2000. The authors have utilized a spectrum of technological forecasting methods and techniques that appear to be most appropriate for ocean transport systems. A general overview of the environment and major evolutionary elements of the marine transportation system over the next 30 years is presented in Section 1. In Section 2, industry needs are developed utilizing a combination of trend extrapolation, envelope curve, and figure of merit techniques. Section 3 represents an investigation of the limits of existing technologies and possible new developments. Figure of merit and envelope curve forecast methods were utilized. Also, the Delphi forecast method was used with a group of limited size and varied marine technology experience. The technique of relevance and project weighting was used in Section 4 to integrate the needs forecast and the technological forecast. A preliminary development schedule of the major projects that could contribute toward the United States again becoming a leading maritime nation is also presented in Section 4. An integrated planning and development management system is suggested to ensure cost-effective and coordinated progress in the sociopolitical as well as the technical programs.