Abstract
In this article we examine the technological feasibility of the global target of reducing GHG emissions to 50 % of the 1990 level by the year 2050. We also perform a detailed analysis of the contribution of low-carbon technologies to GHG emission reduction over mid- and long-term timeframes, and evaluate the required technological cost. For the analysis we use AIM/Enduse[Global], a techno-economic model for climate change mitigation policy assessment. The results show that a 50 % GHG emission reduction target is technically achievable. Yet achieving the target will require substantial emission mitigation efforts. The GHG emission reduction rate from the reference scenario stands at 23 % in 2020 and 73 % in 2050. The marginal abatement cost to achieve these emission reductions reaches $150/tCO2-eq in 2020 and $600/tCO2-eq in 2050. Renewable energy, fuel switching, and efficiency improvement in power generation account for 45 % of the total GHG emission reduction in 2020. Non-energy sectors, namely, fugitive emission, waste management, agriculture, and F-gases, account for 25 % of the total GHG emission reduction in 2020. CCS, solar power generation, wind power generation, biomass power generation, and biofuel together account for 64 % of the total GHG emission reduction in 2050. Additional investment in GHG abatement technologies for achieving the target reaches US$ 6.0 trillion by 2020 and US$ 73 trillion by 2050. This corresponds to 0.7 and 1.8 % of the world GDP, respectively, in the same periods. Non-Annex I regions account for 55 % of the total additional investment by 2050. In a sectoral breakdown, the power generation and transport sectors account for 56 and 30 % of the total additional investment by 2050, respectively.
Highlights
Ambitious long-term1 climate targets are being seriously considered in international climate policy arenas
In this article we examine the technological feasibility of the global target of reducing GHG emissions to 50 % of the 1990 level by the year 2050
In its Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reviewed 177 emission mitigation scenarios and classified them into six categories based on the stringency of the climate targets (IPCC 2007)
Summary
Ambitious long-term climate targets are being seriously considered in international climate policy arenas. Under the Cancun agreements concluded at the 16th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP16), for example, the conference of parties recognizes the long-term climate goal of holding the increase in global average temperature below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Climate change mitigation models have been used to explore GHG emission reduction scenarios. In its Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reviewed 177 emission mitigation scenarios and classified them into six categories based on the stringency of the climate targets (IPCC 2007). The global temperature target of 2 °C and the emission reduction target of 50 % by. Global mean temperature increase above pre-industrial at equilibrium using best estimate climate sensitivity (°C)
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