Technological constraints to energy-related carbon emissions and economic growth decoupling: A retrospective and prospective analysis

Abstract

Decoupling the trends of energy-related carbon emissions from economic growth is an essential precondition and condition for cost-effective climate stabilization. Using an extended Kaya identity and the Tapio decoupling definitions, this study explored the role and magnitude of drivers associated with carbon emissions and economic growth decoupling across 134 countries. The retrospective (1995–2015) decomposition analysis was complemented by exploring the future decoupling projections using assumptions of the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) framework. The results indicate that less mature developing economies are carbonizing their energy systems at faster rates (about 1–4%/year) compared to developed economies. While emerging developing economies are progressively transitioning towards weak decoupling. Overall the deterioration of structural and intensity technology drivers, including conversion efficiency, emission factor, and fossil fuel mix, are the major pinch points to achieving absolute decoupling among developing economies. The prospective analysis of the SSP assumptions also indicate that - developing economies exhibit very minimal signs of decoupling and decarbonization relative to developed economies. The study provides instructive insights about the urgency of addressing global decarbonization, especially among developing economies. • Compared the technology and scale driver of CO 2 -GDP decoupling across income class. • Downscaled the projection of CO 2 -GDP decoupling using assumptions of mitigation. • Developing economies exhibit minimal evidence of strong decoupling. • Structural energy drivers inhibit strong decoupling among developing economies.