Technoeconomic and Policy Drivers of Project Performance for Bioenergy Alternatives Using Biomass from Beetle-Killed Trees

Robert Campbell,Nathaniel Anderson,Helen Naughton,Daren Daugaard

doi:10.3390/en11020293

Abstract

As a result of widespread mortality from beetle infestation in the forests of the western United States, there are substantial stocks of biomass suitable as a feedstock for energy production. This study explored the financial viability of four production pathway scenarios for the conversion of beetle-killed pine to bioenergy and bioproducts in the Rocky Mountains. Monte Carlo simulation using data obtained from planned and existing projects was used to account for uncertainty in key technoeconomic variables and to provide distributions of project net present value (NPV), as well as for sensitivity analysis of key economic and production variables. Over a 20-year project period, results for base case scenarios reveal mean NPV ranging from a low of −$8.3 million for electric power production to a high of $76.0 million for liquid biofuel with a biochar co-product. However, under simulation, all scenarios had conditions resulting in both positive and negative NPV. NPV ranged from −$74.5 million to $51.4 million for electric power, and from −$21.6 million to $246.3 million for liquid biofuels. The potential effects of economic trends and public policies that aim to promote renewable energy and biomass utilization are discussed for each production pathway. Because the factors that most strongly affect financial viability differ across projects, the likely effects of particular types of policies are also shown to vary substantially.

Highlights

46% of all renewable energy in the United States (U.S.) comes from biomass, which accounts for 4.6% of total national energy consumption [1]
Information on the production technologies used to characterize the four scenarios was collected from three sources: industry partners operating or planning similar facilities in the region, the primary literature focused on Technoeconomic analysis (TEA) of bioenergy and bioproducts, and engineering textbooks focused on facility design, construction and operation
This study explored the financial viability of four existing or planned production pathway scenarios for the conversion of beetle-killed pine to bioenergy and bioproducts in the Rocky Mountain region of the United States

Summary

Introduction

46% of all renewable energy in the United States (U.S.) comes from biomass, which accounts for 4.6% of total national energy consumption [1]. Bioenergy is anticipated to play a key role in the country’s ability to meet renewable energy goals set by legislation such as the Energy. Many U.S states have renewable energy goals that explicitly include woody biomass utilization [3,4]. The U.S Department of Energy estimates that, depending on price and policies over the 20 years, woody biomass in the form of logging residues may provide between 16.2 and 18.9 million dry tonnes of biomass per year for energy [5]. Biomass energy can provide greenhouse gas benefits under certain conditions, such as in the case of residues from forest management activities in disturbance-prone ecosystems [6,7]. In the Rocky Mountain region of the western U.S (Figure 1), there are substantial stocks of woody biomass associated with meeting forest management needs.

Methods

Results

Conclusion