Techno-economic comparison of promising biofuel conversion pathways in a Nordic context – Effects of feedstock costs and technology learning

Abstract

This study compares the techno-economic feasibility of five forest-based biofuel conversion pathways for road transportation in the Nordic countries with particular focus paid to feedstock cost effects on total costs in a partial equilibrium model environment. We present (I) a literature review of techno-economic estimates detailing biofuel costs at various capacities, (II) estimate a capacity-wise normalized cost-comparison of the conversion pathways, and (III) estimate the feedstock cost changes with increasing biofuel facility deployment in the Nordic Forest Sector Model. The results indicate that fast pyrolysis and hydrothermal liquefaction are the most cost-competitive options among the reviewed conversion pathways. We found average costs of FASTPYR and HTL to range from 0.84€−L to 0.91€−L (0.93$−L to 1.01$−L) and 0.84€−L to 0.88€−L (0.93$−L to 0.98$−L) depending on the techno-economic data used and forest biomass marked demand. Technology learning may reduce these costs further. The conversion pathways are not cost-competitive with current fossil alternatives but may be cost-competitive with current biofuel conversion pathways, given nth plant cost levels. At a biofuel production level corresponding to 20% of the Nordic fossil fuel consumption for road transport, feedstock costs increase 12.0–35.2%, depending on the conversion pathway and the restrictions imposed on what constitutes biofuel feedstock. This corresponds to an increase ranging from 9.9% to 26.2% on the total costs. Technology learning may outweigh the effect of feedstock cost increases on the total costs depending on the learning rate and the conversion pathway. The results of this study can potentially aid policy creation for conversion pathway evaluation and support schemes.