Techniques for constructing climate scenarios for stress test applications

Abstract

In this review, we provide guidance on the construction of climate scenarios for stress tests—scenarios that represent disruptive climatic events and can be used to assess the impacts of climate and weather risks at the level of detail that is necessary to identify specific adaptation actions or strategies. While there is a wealth of guidance on scenario-based climate adaptation planning, this guidance typically assumes the selection and use of decadal to century-long time segments of downscaled climate model projections, rather than the creation of a customized scenario depicting a specific extreme event. We address this gap by synthesizing a variety of data sources and analytical techniques for constructing climate scenarios for stress tests that are customized to address specific end-users’ needs. We then illustrate the development and application of climate scenarios with a case study that explores water sustainability under changing climate in the Truckee and Carson River basins of California and Nevada. Finally, we assess the potential advantages and disadvantages of the different data sources and analytical techniques described to provide guidance on which are best suited for an intended application based on the system of study, the stakeholders involved, and the resources available. Ultimately, this work is intended to provide the building blocks with which scientist-stakeholder teams can produce their own stress test scenarios to explore place-based weather and climate risks.