Technique for Projecting the Future Growth and Distribution of Marine Recreational Fishing Demand

Abstract

Using data from the 1980 U.S. National Survey of Fishing, Hunting and Wildlife Associated Recreation, we develop a technique for estimating marine recreational fishing demand and demonstrate it with data for Texas saltwater fishermen. We show how current and future demand for recreational fishing is distributed by age and how this distribution will change over time. By segmenting the population of saltwater fishermen by age cohort, we can account for different annual rates of fishing exhibited by age-groups, as well as for a population age distribution that will shift over time. Each year, different age cohorts account for different proportions of total demand in Texas. Demand projections prepared for 1990, 2000, and 2025 showed differences in both total demand and its distribution by age cohort. As total demand continues to grow, its distribution by age cohort will shift. As the statewide population ages, greater proportions of total demand will be generated by fishermen in older age cohorts. Fisheries managers should take changes in the age distribution of fishermen into account, because the values placed on the fishing experience may change with participant age.