Abstract
This paper investigates the profitability of technical analysis in a portfolio of integrated oil and gas companies. Using data of 21 individual companies for the period 01/07/2011 to 30/06/2021, we examine the Percent Bollinger (%b) technical trading rule against the benchmark buy-and-hold (B&H) policy. Our results show that the %b generates positive returns, lower drawdowns and smaller ulcer index as compared to the B&H. Risk-return trade-off analysis confirms the superiority of the technical strategy, where it produces greater ulcer performance index, Sharpe and Sortino ratios. These metrics confirm that returns from the technical rule are not characterized by higher risks. Our findings suggest that stock prices of these oil and gas companies neither fully nor rapidly capture historical price patterns, allowing traders to exploit and earn abnormal returns. The results are inconsistent with weak form market efficiency.
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