Technical research on rapid source term calculation and prediction technology of nuclear accidents based on Bayesian network

Abstract

ABSTRACT How to evaluate and predict potential source terms quickly and effectively is very important for emergency response. In this paper, the traditional forward analysis calculation based on deterministic method was combined with probability theory calculation, and a large number of typical accident sequences were calculated with severe accident analysis software to obtain data of source terms. According to expert knowledge base, probabilistic safety analysis, and other information, a model of nuclear power plant was established based on Bayesian network algorithm, so as to carry out researches on rapid source term calculation and prediction methods. Based on the Bayesian network model of a specific power plant and the pre-calculated source term results of typical accident scenarios, the best available knowledge and observation results of events were used to estimate the relevant typical source terms and their possibilities, which provide a strong basis for effectively grasping and predicting the accident process, quickly predicting source terms and release characteristics of radioactive materials, and quickly and accurately evaluating the radioactive consequences.