Abstract
Abstract. New particle formation (NPF) occurs frequently in the global atmosphere. During recent years, detailed laboratory experiments combined with intensive field observations in different locations have provided insights into the vapours responsible for the initial formation of particles and their subsequent growth. In this regard, the importance of sulfuric acid, stabilizing bases such as ammonia and amines as well as extremely low volatile organics, have been proposed. The instrumentation to observe freshly formed aerosol particles has developed to a stage where the instruments can be implemented as part of airborne platforms, such as aircrafts or a Zeppelin-type airship. Flight measurements are technically more demanding and require a greater detail of planning than field studies at the ground level. The high cost of flight hours, limited time available during a single research flight for the measurements, and different instrument payloads in Zeppelin airship for various flight missions demanded an analysis tool that would forecast whether or not there is a good chance for an NPF event. Here we present a methodology to forecast NPF event probability at the SMEAR II site in Hyytiälä, Finland. This methodology was used to optimize flight hours during the PEGASOS (Pan-European Gas Aerosol Climate Interaction Study)–Zeppelin Northern mission in May–June 2013. Based on the existing knowledge, we derived a method for estimating the nucleation probability that utilizes forecast air mass trajectories, weather forecasts, and air quality model predictions. With the forecast tool we were able to predict the occurrence of NPF events for the next day with more than 90 % success rate (10 out of 11 NPF event days correctly predicted). To our knowledge, no similar forecasts of NPF occurrence have been developed for other sites. This method of forecasting NPF occurrence could be applied also at other locations, provided that long-term observations of conditions favouring particle formation are available.
Highlights
The instrumentation to observe freshly formed aerosol particles has developed to a stage where the instruments can be implemented as part of airborne platforms, such as aircrafts or a Zeppelin-type airship
The high cost of flight hours, limited time available during a single research flight for the measurements, and different instrument payloads in Zeppelin airship for various flight missions demanded an analysis tool that would forecast whether or not there is a good chance for an New particle formation (NPF) event
With the forecast tool we were able to predict the occurrence of NPF events for the day with more than 90 % success rate (10 out of 11 NPF event days correctly predicted)
Summary
Formation and growth of secondary aerosol particles has been observed in numerous locations and in different environments in the planetary boundary layer (for an overview see, e.g. Kulmala et al, 2004; Kulmala and Kerminen, 2008). Formation and growth of secondary aerosol particles has been observed in numerous locations and in different environments in the planetary boundary layer Numerous investigations have attempted to connect new particle formation (NPF) to atmospheric trace gas concentrations, atmospheric chemistry, and meteorological processes Most of the NPF observations are based on stationary ground-level measurements during which the sampled air masses and prevailing meteorological conditions are continuously changing. The growth of the newly formed particles can be followed for several hours from these fixed point measurements, indicating that NPF usually occurs over large areas (Dal Maso et al, 2007; Hussein et al, 2009). As part of the 4-year-long EU funded PEGASOS (Pan-European Gas Aerosol Climate Interaction Study) project, a Zeppelin NT (Neue Technologie) airship was performing atmospheric aerosol, trace gas, and photochemistry measurement flights in central Finland
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