Abstract

Abstract. We present a Monte Carlo genetic algorithm (MCGA) for efficient, automated, and unbiased global optimization of model input parameters by simultaneous fitting to multiple experimental data sets. The algorithm was developed to address the inverse modelling problems associated with fitting large sets of model input parameters encountered in state-of-the-art kinetic models for heterogeneous and multiphase atmospheric chemistry. The MCGA approach utilizes a sequence of optimization methods to find and characterize the solution of an optimization problem. It addresses an issue inherent to complex models whose extensive input parameter sets may not be uniquely determined from limited input data. Such ambiguity in the derived parameter values can be reliably detected using this new set of tools, allowing users to design experiments that should be particularly useful for constraining model parameters. We show that the MCGA has been used successfully to constrain parameters such as chemical reaction rate coefficients, diffusion coefficients, and Henry's law solubility coefficients in kinetic models of gas uptake and chemical transformation of aerosol particles as well as multiphase chemistry at the atmosphere–biosphere interface. While this study focuses on the processes outlined above, the MCGA approach should be portable to any numerical process model with similar computational expense and extent of the fitting parameter space.

Highlights

  • Atmospheric aerosols play a key role in climate, air quality, and public health

  • While multiphase chemistry in aerosols and clouds can be described by a sequence of well-understood physical and chemical elementary processes in kinetic models (Hanson et al, 1994; Pöschl et al, 2007; George and Abbatt, 2010), the deduction of parameters or rate coefficients of the individual elementary processes is severely complicated by the inherent coupling of chemical reactions and mass transport processes (Kolb et al, 2010; Berkemeier et al, 2013; Shiraiwa et al, 2014)

  • We present the Monte Carlo genetic algorithm (MCGA), a method combining direct Monte Carlo sampling with a genetic algorithm as a heuristic global optimization method that approximates the global optimum for input parameter sets of computational models

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Summary

Introduction

Atmospheric aerosols play a key role in climate, air quality, and public health. Heterogeneous reactions and multiphase processes alter the physical and chemical properties of organic aerosol particles, but the effects of these reactions are not fully elucidated (e.g. Finlayson-Pitts, 2009; George and Abbatt, 2010; Abbatt et al, 2012; Pöschl and Shiraiwa, 2015). If too few or too similar experimental data are used during the fitting process or input parameters are allowed to move in a large range, the optimization problem can be underdetermined (ill-defined) and multiple solutions may exist In this case, even though a good agreement between model output and training data set is obtained, it is likely that only the model input parameters corresponding to the most limiting processes will be physically meaningful. 20 % of children are created by applying a mutation scheme that alters parameters in a stochastic manner within the prescribed bounds to enhance genetic variability These mechanisms enable the MCGA to overcome local minima, a crucial feature of a global optimization method. Since the parallel threads will run asynchronously, a fraction of individuals must remain in the population to be mixed to enable continuous operation without waiting times

Implications for modelling and measuring chemical kinetics
Application of MCGA in atmospheric multiphase chemistry
Findings
Conclusions
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