Abstract
Abstract. Land surface models are excellent tools for studying how climate change and land use affect surface hydrology. However, in order to assess the impacts of Earth processes on river flows, simulated changes in runoff need to be routed through the landscape. In this technical note, we describe the integration of the Ecosystem Demography (ED2) model with a hydrological routing scheme. The purpose of the study was to create a tool capable of incorporating to hydrological predictions the terrestrial ecosystem responses to climate, carbon dioxide, and land-use change, as simulated with terrestrial biosphere models. The resulting ED2+R model calculates the lateral routing of surface and subsurface runoff resulting from the terrestrial biosphere models' vertical water balance in order to determine spatiotemporal patterns of river flows within the simulated region. We evaluated the ED2+R model in the Tapajós, a 476 674 km2 river basin in the southeastern Amazon, Brazil. The results showed that the integration of ED2 with the lateral routing scheme results in an adequate representation (Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency up to 0.76, Kling–Gupta efficiency up to 0.86, Pearson's R up to 0.88, and volume ratio up to 1.06) of daily to decadal river flow dynamics in the Tapajós. These results are a consistent step forward with respect to the no river representation common among terrestrial biosphere models, such as the initial version of ED2.
Highlights
Understanding the impacts of deforestation (e.g., Lejeune et al, 2015; Medvigy et al, 2011; Andréassian, 2004) and climate change (e.g., Jiménez-Cisneros et al, 2014) on the Earth’s water cycle has been a topic of substantial interest in recent years given its potential implications for ecosystems and society (e.g., Wohl et al, 2012; Brown et al, 2005)
The integration of the routing scheme with Ecosystem Demography 2 (ED2) increases the ability of the model to reproduce the observed temporal variations in river flows at the basin outlet (Fig. 8)
The routing scheme improves the ability of the model to reproduce the spatiotemporal distribution of water flows across the basin: both the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and the Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) indexes reached values ranging between 0.76 and 0.86 in the calibration, and between 0.68 and 0.80 in the validation period (Table 3)
Summary
Understanding the impacts of deforestation (e.g., Lejeune et al, 2015; Medvigy et al, 2011; Andréassian, 2004) and climate change (e.g., Jiménez-Cisneros et al, 2014) on the Earth’s water cycle has been a topic of substantial interest in recent years given its potential implications for ecosystems and society (e.g., Wohl et al, 2012; Brown et al, 2005). Analyses of climate change impacts on the Earth’s water cycle increasingly use terrestrial biosphere models, which are capable of estimating changes in the vertical water balance as a function of climate forcing and/or land-use-induced changes in canopy structure and composition (Zulkafli et al, 2013). F. Pereira et al.: A hydrological routing scheme for the ED2 model
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