Technical evaluation of Off-Earth ice mining scenarios through an opportunity cost approach

Abstract

In this paper, four Off-Earth Mining scenarios for water extraction have been designed to supply a H2/LOx propellant market in Low Earth Orbit. A non-financial measure for determining feasibility has been devised for the analysis based on the opportunity cost as opposed to the Net Present Value. The first scenario for evaluation is a conventional strip mining operation in a southern lunar crater. An ‘In-Situ Sublimation’ method in the same location has been determined to be more competitive than strip mining due to equipment mass requirements. However, neither system can compete with direct launch of water from the Earth based on the assumptions in this research. The third and fourth scenarios are based on a near Earth dormant comet and also utilize In-Situ Sublimation techniques. These scenarios focus heavily on transport optimization. A single miner-hauler system was found to be inferior to the multi-craft system. It was also revealed that the dormant comet mining scenarios will not be competitive enough with lunar mining or direct launch from Earth to supply a Low Earth Orbit market.