Technical Civilizations in the Galaxy

Abstract

Are there other technical civilizations in the galaxy? Past analyses come to different conclusions. Cocconi and Morrison demonstrated in 1959 that interstellar radio communication was possible and Drake conducted the first search for beacons in 1960. The Drake equation estimates the number of galactic civilizations that are transmitting beacons as the product of the rate of star formation in the galaxy, the fraction of stars with planets, their average number of earthlike planets, the fraction with intelligent life and interstellar communication, and the average lifetime of a technical civilization. The Drake model of the galaxy contains many technical civilizations with communication but no interstellar travel. Michael Hart in 1975 strongly challenged this model. Starting with the fact that no extraterrestrials have been observed on Earth, and assuming that interstellar colonization is possible, he concluded that it was very likely that we are the first civilization in our galaxy and that searching or beacons is probably a waste of time and money. The Fermi paradox similarly reasons that if extraterrestrials exist: they should be here, and asks, Where are they? The Hart/Fermi model of the galaxy contains only our civilization and suggests we may colonize the galaxy. A third galactic model is that we are alone but will never develop interstellar travel. The fourth alternate model has many technical civilizations, with interstellar travel and colonization. The possibilities are clear and momentous. Either we are the only technical civilization in the galaxy or there are others. Technical civilizations will colonize the galaxy or not. We have four cosmic conjectures - one or many, colonization or not - but however unlikely they seem based on our limited evidence, one of these four models must be collect.