Teberda valley runoff variability (AD 1850–2005) based on tree-ring reconstruction (Northern Caucasus, Russia)

Abstract

Seven tree-ring chronologies are used to reconstruct Teberda River (Northern Caucasus, Russia) smoothed runoff for May, July and August. Six chronologies were developed from Pinus sylvestris and one from Abies nordmanniana. Tree growth is significantly, but weakly, correlated with maximum temperatures (negatively) and relative humidity (positively) during summer. All possible combinations of seven predictors were tried to get the best result on the cross-validation. Two of three reconstructions showed high wavelet coherence with instrumental data on decadal timescales and were analysed for spectrum stability. Minima of moving trends at the end of the reconstructions along with weakening of decadal cycles may be a marker of significant change of Teberda River hydrological regime during the second half of the 20th century.