Abstract
The Olympic Games is the pinnacle international sporting competition with team sport coaches interested in key performance indicators to assist the development of match strategies for success. This study examined the relationship between team performance indicators and match outcome during the women’s basketball tournament at the Olympic Games. Team performance indicators were collated from all women’s basketball matches during the 2004–2016 Olympic Games (n = 156) and analyzed via linear (binary logistic regression) and non-linear (conditional interference (CI) classification tree) statistical techniques. The most parsimonious linear model retained “defensive rebounds”, “field-goal percentage”, “offensive rebounds”, “fouls”, “steals”, and “turnovers” with a classification accuracy of 85.6%. The CI classification tree retained four performance indicators with a classification accuracy of 86.2%. The combination of “field-goal percentage”, “defensive rebounds”, “steals”, and “turnovers” provided the greatest probability of winning (91.1%), while a combination of “field-goal percentage”, “steals”, and “turnovers” provided the greatest probability of losing (96.7%). Shooting proficiency and defensive actions were identified as key team performance indicators for Olympic female basketball success. The development of key defensive strategies and/or the selection of athletes highly proficient in defensive actions may strengthen Olympic match success. Incorporation of non-linear analyses may provide teams with superior/practical approaches for elite sporting success.
Highlights
Basketball is the second most popular team sport worldwide, and the second most watchedOlympic sport, with over 450 million registered players [1]
Match outcome comparisons of each performance indicator were examined via multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) with the level of statistical significance set at p < 0.05
The indicators that had the largest effect on match outcome were
Summary
Basketball is the second most popular team sport worldwide, and the second most watchedOlympic sport, with over 450 million registered players [1]. Many studies have examined the importance of team performance indicators for match success within national junior and senior competitions [9,10,11,12,13]. Most have identified “field-goal percentage”, “defensive rebounds”, and “assists” as crucial team indicators for match success [9,11,12,13,14]. These results were extended to the elite international level with “field goal percentage”. “defensive rebounds” identified as vital for match outcomes at the men’s Olympic basketball tournaments [8].
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