Teaching distribution system reliability evaluation using Monte Carlo simulation

Abstract

Analytical techniques for distribution system reliability assessment can be effectively used to evaluate the mean values of a wide range of system reliability indices. This approach is usually used when teaching the basic concepts of distribution system reliability evaluation. The mean or expected value, however, does not provide any information on the inherent variability of an index. Appreciation of this inherent variability is an important parameter in comprehending the actual reliability experienced by a customer and should be recognized when teaching distribution system reliability evaluation. This paper presents a time sequential Monte Carlo simulation technique which can be used in complex distribution system evaluation, and describes a computer program developed to implement this technique. General distribution system elements, operating models and radial configurations are considered in the program. The results obtained using both analytical and simulation methods are compared. The mean values and the probability distributions for both load point and system indices are illustrated using a practical test system.