Tác động của mặn và ngập theo kịch bản biến đổi khí hậu đến tiềm năng thích nghi đất đai vùng ven biển Đồng bằng sông Cửu Long

Abstract

Agriculture is an important sector in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD), a major agricultural zone in Vietnam. Besides, the VMD has been identified as being particularly susceptible to the impacts of climatic variability. Land use systems in the coastal zones of the VMD have changed to improve local farmers’ income and to adapt to changes of socio-economic settings and natural conditions, especially in the climate change context. The data on natural conditions, current land use types, land use planning and scenarios of climate change (sea level rise and salinization) in VMD were collected. In this study, physical land suitability evaluation was implemented for 10 major land use types in the coastal provinces of the VMD (including: triple rice cropping, double rice cropping, single rice cropping, rice - cash crop rotation, rice – shrimp rotation, intensive shrimp, shrimp/mangrove, intensive sugarcane, intensive cash crop and fruit orchard) by using the land evaluation approach (FAO, 1976) in different scenarios. The results showed that there were 09 land suitability units of 10 major land use types in both the present and future climate change scenarios (2030 and 2050), and identified the dispute areas between of freshwater and salinity water affected to land use change in Kien Giang, Ca Mau, Bac Lieu, Soc Trang, Tra Vinh and Ben Tre. This study provided a good reference in orientation of agricultural land use planning and support adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change in the future.