Taxonomy and Categorization of Uncertainties in Space Systems with an Application to the Measurement of the Value of Adaptability

Abstract

Space systems face multiple types of uncertainties from the design phase through production, testing, launch, operation and retirement of the space system that challenge the mission success in multiple dimensions and aspects. Therefore proper identification, classification, categorization and management of uncertainties are necessary in understanding the environment that space systems are embedded and also essential in identifying the adaptable designs, architectures, or solutions. Given the ever increasing dynamic environment of current space systems, sources of uncertainties are considerably diverse and therefore make proper identification and management a crucial part of design and operation of adaptable and Flexible Space Systems. This paper aims on a thorough and holistic taxonomy and categorization of space systems uncertainties for the purpose of keeping track of uncertainties and facilitate their prioritization, management, scenario building and appropriate modeling during the entire life cycle for the purpose of designing Adaptable and Flexible Space Systems. Several major types of uncertainties were organized into five major groups including policy, service performance, organization, technology and market; which are derived from the stakeholders and mapping the space system context. The taxonomy has been defined ensuring completeness and coherency. Then various classification types based on uncertainty dimension, being exogenous or endogenous, level of complexity and other classification types are presented. This research also addresses the peculiarities of the space systems according to their type of mission and customer.