Tax Revenue Combination Forecast of Hebei Province Based on the IOWA Operator

Abstract

The combination forecast method based on inducted ordered weighted average operator is used widely in the recent years. The difference between this model and the traditional combination forecast method is that the empowerment coefficient of the combination forecast has nothing to do with the monomial prediction model, but it is closely related to forecast precision's size of the monomial prediction model at each time-point, it is an invariable empowerment method. First of all, this paper adopts the time series tendency forecast model and the gray system GM (1, 1) forecast model in order to analysis the tax revenue of the Hebei Province, secondly, it introduces the tax revenue combination forecast model based on the IOWA operator, Empirical analysis indicates that this model can enhance the forecast precision of the combination and it is an effective combination forecast method.