Tax Revenue and Economic Growth Nexus in Ghana: Co-integration and Granger causality Test

Abstract

Abstract The paper sought to assess the taxes and economic growth nexus in Ghana. The study used annual time-series data collected from 1972 to 2019. The study used the Johansen Co-integration technique, vector error correction model, and Granger causality test to assess the causal relationship between tax revenue and economic growth in Ghana. The Co-integration test was used to establish the long-run relationship. In contrast, the Granger Causality test was used to establish the short-run relationship between the variables used in the model. The study revealed that the model has a speed of adjustment of 61.4% to restore the short-run relationship to the long-run equilibrium path. Furthermore, the study found a unidirectional relationship between tax revenue variables and economic growth. Again, the study found support for a positive and significant nexus between direct tax revenue and economic growth and a significant and negative nexus between indirect tax revenue and economic growth. Based on the results, the study recommends that the government tax policy move gradually from indirect tax revenue concentration to direct tax revenue to finance development programs to sustain economic growth. Keywords: Direct tax; Economic growth; Granger Causality; Indirect tax.