Task complexity and operational risk management in military aviation

Abstract

Flight risk assessment has been based on traditional tools that are simple to use but not validated for the consideration of all relevant Complexity Contributing Factors (CCFs). This work aims to improve the process of risk management of missions in military aviation and allow for a more thorough examination of Complexity Contributing Factors (CCFs). After a series of structured workshops, a classification scheme of 46 CCFs was developed and tested in a large number of operational missions (n = 227). Principal Components Analysis has verified four complexity classes that provided a structure for the CCFs while multiple linear regression analysis showed that the four classes of complexity correlated well with mission success outcomes. The study provides evidence that the classification scheme of complexity considers a variety of observable markers (CCFs) which can be used to rate complexity and introduce mission changes that create a safety environment for military missions. Practitioner summary: This study develops a classification scheme of complexity with a large number of observable markers (Complexity Contributing Factors) that can be used to rate the complexity of missions in military aviation. Earlier studies on task complexity and a series of workshops with Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) have been used to develop the classification scheme which was validated with data from a large number of military missions.