Targets of Violence: Evidence From India’s Naxalite Conflict

Abstract

This paper considers how shocks to rural incomes intensify violence in India’s Naxalite insurgency. Using variation in annual rainfall in a panel of district level fatal incidents between 2005 and 2011, I find that deficient rainfall generally spurs targeted violence against civilians, but the number of Maoist attacks against security forces only increases in mining districts. This finding consistent with the idea that the relationship between income shocks and conflict depends on the type of targets and the revenue sources of the rebels. In particular, the fighting capacity of rebel groups against government forces could benefit more from negative rural income shocks if the group’s resources are sufficiently independent from the agricultural economy, as is the case in mining areas.