Target threat assessment based on influence nets

Abstract

To overcome intractability issues in Bayesian networks applied in threat assessment, influence nets based threat assessment method is proposed. The indicators system of threat assessment is established whose indicators are divided into three levels to depict the cause and effect relationship. With the indicators system and influence nets theory, influence nets based threat assessment model is proposed, in which each indicator is quantized by several states. Influence nets can be considered as special kind of Bayesian Networks, Causal strength logic is utilized to estimate the conditional probabilities in the threat assessment model. A simulation example of threat assessment is presented in the last part, several targets with different values of attributes is included in the example.