Abstract
In this study, we defined the target population of environments (TPE) for wheat breeding in India, the largest wheat producer in South Asia, and estimated the correlated response to the selection and prediction ability of five selection environments (SEs) in Mexico. We also estimated grain yield (GY) gains in each TPE. Our analysis used meteorological, soil, and GY data from the international Elite Spring Wheat Yield Trials (ESWYT) distributed by the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) from 2001 to 2016. We identified three TPEs: TPE 1, the optimally irrigated Northwestern Plain Zone; TPE 2, the optimally irrigated, heat-stressed North Eastern Plains Zone; and TPE 3, the drought-stressed Central-Peninsular Zone. The correlated response to selection ranged from 0.4 to 0.9 within each TPE. The highest prediction accuracies for GY per TPE were derived using models that included genotype-by-environment interaction and/or meteorological information and their interaction with the lines. The highest prediction accuracies for TPEs 1, 2, and 3 were 0.37, 0.46, and 0.51, respectively, and the respective GY gains were 118, 46, and 123 kg/ha/year. These results can help fine-tune the breeding of elite wheat germplasm with stable yields to reduce farmers’ risk from year-to-year environmental variation in India’s wheat lands, which cover 30 million ha, account for 100 million tons of grain or more each year, and provide food and livelihoods for hundreds of millions of farmers and consumers in South Asia.
Highlights
Among the world’s three most important staple food crops, wheat is grown on more than 215 million hectares worldwide, producing over 735 million tons (t) of grain (USDA, 2020)
These target population of environments (TPE) tended to be concentrated in three main geographical zones of India: TPE 1, representing the Northwestern Plain Zone (NWPZ); TPE 2, the North Eastern Plains Zone (NEPZ); and TPE 3, the Central-Peninsular Zone (CPZ) (Figure 2)
The characterization of targeted breeding regions by defining TPEs is fundamental in designing strategies for any plant breeding program (Atlin et al, 2000) and paramount for CIMMYT, which seeks to develop wheat germplasm with high and stable yields for smallholder farmers worldwide
Summary
Among the world’s three most important staple food crops, wheat is grown on more than 215 million hectares (ha) worldwide, producing over 735 million tons (t) of grain (USDA, 2020). The International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) annually develops and distributes improved wheat germplasm to hundreds of partners worldwide, free of charge in the form of targeted yield trials and observation nurseries. The data reflect significant variations in growing environments across years and locations and serve as an input for CIMMYT wheat breeding, resulting in lines that are diverse and specially selected for yield potential, disease resistance, end-use quality, and climate resilience. Research has shown that conditions at the CIMMYT wheat research station near Ciudad Obregón, an irrigated desert farm in northwestern Mexico, correlate with diverse wheat-growing environments worldwide (DeLacy et al, 1993; Lillemo et al, 2005) and, by controlling irrigation, create a simulation of six selection environments (SEs) that represent major CIMMYT target regions for wheat breeding and deployment in the developing world
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