Target observations for improving initialization of high-impact ocean-atmospheric environmental events forecasting

Abstract

Abstract In this paper, we emphasize the importance of accurate initial conditions in predicting high-impact ocean-atmospheric environmental events, such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), tropical cyclone (TC), and Kuroshio large meander (KLM), by reviewing recent progresses toward target observations for improving the initialization of these events forecasting. Since field observations are costly and will never be dense enough to fully cover the vast space of these events, it is necessary to develop methodologies that guide the design of efficient and effective observation strategy. Of particular interest is a method called conditional non-linear optimal perturbation (CNOP), which has been shown to be very useful in determining the sensitive areas for target observations applicable to the predictions of ENSO, IOD, TC, and KLM. Further studies are needed to understand the predictability of these events under the influence of climate change, and to explore the possibility of implementing field programs of target observations. These studies are challenging but are crucially important for improving our forecast skill of the high-impact ocean-atmospheric environmental events, and thus for disaster prevention, climate change mitigation, and sustainable socio-economic development.