Abstract
The research presented in this paper is aimed at defining a model that enables the management of the relationship between private vehicles and public transport applying the available instruments of city transport policy such as parking policy and public transport policy measures. Statistical data used for modelling is sourced from the database in a wide range of EU cities. The target model was developed in the form of stepwise regression analysis. Very favourable statistical results were obtained, and the subsequent tests on the city of Novi Sad (250000 inhabitants) led to the conclusion that the obtained results were suitable for implementation in practice. The results of the implemented procedure are of great importance for the enhancement of the existing transport policies in cities, as they enable the development of strategies for finding combinations of instruments that would bring the transport system and urban environment into a desired-viable rather than consequential condition.
Highlights
Traffic models are important tools for traffic forecasting and transportation system management in cities
The experience of using four-step models for defining future traffic demand over several decades has been subject to criticism mainly based on the fact that conventional models only extrapolate the present situation into the future, i.e. do not provide instruments for traffic demand management
The obtained results show that the user’s travel expenses, i.e. direct costs, including parking price and public transport fare most significantly influence a choice of transportation mode
Summary
Traffic models are important tools for traffic forecasting and transportation system management in cities. The experience of using four-step models for defining future traffic demand over several decades has been subject to criticism mainly based on the fact that conventional models only extrapolate the present situation into the future, i.e. do not provide instruments for traffic demand management. Modal split represents a method used for determining either the potential number of trips by mode or the share of different modes of transport and pedestrian trips in the total transport needs. A number of different approaches to currently used modal split are based on the aims, scope and nature of research, the availability of basic information, etc. It is difficult to quantify many potential factors and make a reliable forecast. The major problem is research into the factors of a split between public and personal transport
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