Tapping the Power of Structural Change: Power Cycle Theory as an Instrument in the Toolbox of National Security Decision-Making

Abstract

This article discusses the potential applications of power cycle theory to support national security assessments. It summarizes how the theory relates economic, military, and demographic trends to the likelihood of major war; contrasts power cycle theory with other international relations theories; and tests the theory’s explanatory power against the historical record. This examination makes the case that power cycle theory is a compelling and important tool for assessing the stability of great power competition in both present and future scenarios. uring the summer of 2008, American national security circles experienced a spasm of concern over the perceived resurgence of Russian power, brought on by a sharp increase in world oil prices. However, these concerns eventually faded as oil prices collapsed, illustrating how difficult it can be to identify long-term changes in the international system’s balance of power. Indeed, a major challenge that national security strategists have always confronted is how to distinguish between the minor adjustments to geopolitical power that the international system constantly experiences, and the more permanent structural changes in the relative power of states that ultimately lead to a long-term reordering (or “rebalancing”) of the international system. When assessing great-power competition, the international relations theory of power cycles offers a significant, and too frequently overlooked, framework for making this distinction by explaining why some eras are more prone to major wars than others. This article discusses the potential for applying power cycle theory in support of national security assessments and decision-making. It summarizes power cycle theory and addresses other approaches that have been used to understand how geopolitical shifts lead to war. This piece then goes