Tap-Noaa's Statistical Spill Trajectory Model: A New Approach To Spill Planning

Abstract

ABSTRACT TAP (Trajectory Analysis Planner) is an interactive spill planning software that allows planners to assess the threat to specific sensitive sites from spilled pollutants within a geographical region, based on statistical analysis of many possible spill scenarios. TAP is ready to use, preloaded with a large database of thousands of spill trajectories initialized with a range of possible wind, weather, and tidal conditions representing the climatology and expected transport processes for a particular region. TAP users choose from countless spill sources with the movement of the ship-shaped cursor throughout the mapped water body. The threat to each of the predetermined sensitive sites, marked as shoreline segments on the map, is represented by colors, corresponding to the probability of pollutant impact from the selected spill site. Planners can also provide cost or consequence values to sites. TAP will use these along with the database of probabilities to calculate various estimates of spill significance relative to the user's specific concerns, such as feet of boom required to protect a site, or number of birds impacted at each site. TAP also helps users account for pollutant that is removed from the spill zone (skimming, booming, dispersants, etc.). The user can then easily see changes in threat to each site of concern from the reduced amount of pollutant, along with the resultant change in the cost or consequence to protect or clean each threatened site. TAP is a departure from the single-scenario, hard-copy trajectory model output traditionally used for the area planning process. TAP affords a much stronger statistical scenario base for regional planning. It is an interactive database that allows users, with minimal training, to rapidly evaluate numerous spill scenarios, examine particular sites of concern and the changes in threat to those sites with scenario changes. TAP also allows planners to modify cost factors to reflect interests of their individual organizations.