Abstract
In counterfactual thinking, an imagined alternative to the reality that comprises an antecedent and a consequent is widely adopted in political discourse to justify past behaviors (i.e., counterfactual explanation) or to depict a better future (i.e., prefactual). However, they have not been properly addressed in political communication literature. Our study examines how politicians used counterfactual expressions for explanation of the past or preparation of the future during COVID-19, one of the most severe public health crises. All Congressional speeches of the Senate and House in the 116th Congress (2019-2020) were retrieved, and counterfactual expressions were identified along with time-focusing in each speech, using recent advances in natural language processing (NLP) techniques. The results show that counterfactuals were more practiced among Democrats in the Senate and Republicans in the House. With the spread of the pandemic, the use of counterfactuals decreased, maintaining a partisan gap in the House. However, it was nearly stable, with no party differences in the Senate. Implications of our findings are discussed, regarding party polarization, institutional constraints, and the quality of Congressional deliberation. Limitations and suggestions for future research are also provided.
Highlights
Since the outbreak of COVID-19 in March, compared to other countries, the United States (US) had time, even if insufficient, to prepare for the approaching threat of COVID-19
The results show that counterfactuals were more practiced among Democrats in the Senate and Republicans in the House
Predicting Counterfactual Expression and Three Types of Time-Focusing In Table 4, the multi-level zero-inflated Poisson (MZIP) regression result for the counterfactual expression and multi-level Poisson (MP) models for three types of time-focusing are displayed
Summary
Since the outbreak of COVID-19 in March, compared to other countries, the United States (US) had time, even if insufficient, to prepare for the approaching threat of COVID-19. There were massive administrative failures in the early stages of COVID-19 spread, and preventative public health policies were not appropriately executed, resulting in many sufferings and deaths that could be saved. It is important to examine how US politicians (1) suggest taking preemptive actions at the early stage and (2) ask accountability for the inaction of preventative policies. Against this backdrop, this study focuses on US politicians’ use of counterfactual expressions. Counterfactual expressions, such as the “as if ...” or “what if ...” statements, are popular and used practically in political as well as ordinary discourse. Despite the widespread practice of counterfactuals, they have not been properly addressed in
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