Taliban 2.0 and Afghanistan–Pakistan Relations

Abstract

Afghanistan remained at the centre stage of regional and global politics owing to its unique geopolitical location in the Cold War period. Afghan jihad of the 1980s impacted not only Afghanistan but also its neighbours particularly Pakistan. In the post-Cold War period, civil war engulfed the war-ravaged and poverty-stricken country which was controlled by the Taliban in 1996. Pakistan recognised the Taliban rule which was ended by the American military might in the wake of 9/11. In the post-Taliban period, the USA-led NATO alliance experimented a Western-style political and economic order in tradition-bound Afghanistan. Paradoxically, after 20 years, different political personalities and presidential terms failed to stabilise the country. Since the Obama years the USA seemed more interested in Indo-Pacific than West Asia. Hence, it opted to withdraw from Afghanistan while doing a deal with the Taliban in Doha in February 2020. The withdrawal policy was operationalised by the Biden Administration. Since 15 August 2021 Afghanistan has been under the Taliban control for the second time, hence, it is termed Taliban 2.0 by this study. Compared to their first regime, the Taliban 2.0 has not been formally recognised by any country so far. Will the Taliban gain regional, if not, international recognition in the foreseeable future? Will Pakistan aid the Taliban in this respect? To what extent intra-Taliban friction impacts bilateral relations? How does Pakistan view Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and vice versa? And, above all, how will Afghanistan and Pakistan treat each other in the coming months? These are some crucial questions that this study attempts to address underpinned by primary and secondary sources.