Abstract
Earth system models are complex and represent a large number of processes, resulting in a persistent spread across climate projections for a given future scenario. Owing to different model performances against observations and the lack of independence among models, there is now evidence that giving equal weight to each available model projection is suboptimal. This Perspective discusses newly developed tools that facilitate a more rapid and comprehensive evaluation of model simulations with observations, process-based emergent constraints that are a promising way to focus evaluation on the observations most relevant to climate projections, and advanced methods for model weighting. These approaches are needed to distil the most credible information on regional climate changes, impacts, and risks for stakeholders and policy-makers.
Highlights
This page was generated automatically upon download from the ETH Zurich Research Collection
This will rely on information from theory, observations, and Earth system model (ESM) simulations that are coordinated as part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP; refs. 2–5)
Many climate projections are shown as multimodel averages in the peer-reviewed literature and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, with the spread across models presented as a measure of projection uncertainty[9]
Summary
Author(s): Eyring, Veronika; Cox, Peter M.; Flato, Gregory M.; Gleckler, Peter J.; Abramowitz, Gab; Caldwell, Peter; Collins, William D.; Gier, Bettina K.; Hall, Alex D.; Hoffman, Forrest M.; Hurtt, George C.; Jahn, Alexandra; Jones, Chris D.; Klein, Stephen A.; Krasting, John P.; Kwiatkowski, Lester; Lorenz, Ruth; Maloney, Eric; Meehl, Gerald A.; Pendergrass, Angeline G.; Pincus, Robert; Ruane, Alex C.; Russell, Joellen L.; Sanderson, Benjamin M.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Sherwood, Steven C.; Simpson, Isla R.; Stouffer, Ronald J.; Williamson, Mark S. This page was generated automatically upon download from the ETH Zurich Research Collection. For more information please consult the Terms of use
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
