Taking account of information maturity in assessing product risk

Abstract

We focus on the product development process based on virtual prototyping, which allows earlier evaluation of product performance. Uncertainty in information and in the behavioural models used by designers may introduce the risk of under- or over- achieving the product requirements. Two aspects of uncertainty are considered: uncertainty in information content, such as a design parameter that is characterised by a tolerance (\(10\pm 2\,\hbox {mm}\)) and in the behavioural models used to assess the proposed design. Maturity is defined as uncertainty in the context of the design parameters and behavioural models that may evolve in the course of the design process, such as a dimension that has not been fixed and a simplified model that needs to be refined. Risk assessment typically accounts for the content uncertainty (variability) but not the maturity of design information. We propose a method for enriching risk assessment taking into account the maturity of information in risk assessment.