Abstract
We tested the hypothesis that elderly migration, both seasonal and permanent, to Sunbelt states such as Arizona is the result, in part, of economic gains made in unaffordable housing markets. The results of a multiple regression analysis of interstate migration flows to Arizona support the hypothesis. Moreover, the stronger relationship for seasonal migration suggests that elderly households are unwilling to realize housing gains in unaffordable markets but, nevertheless, "spend" the gains on seasonal migration. Such behavior is rational if housing is viewed as an investment and expectations of future returns are greater in unaffordable markets. Given that the study was based on housing gains of the 1970s, the results suggest that more recent elderly migration may be even more influenced by such gains, inasmuch as regional differences in housing affordability have become more pronounced.
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