Taiwan's Perspective on China's “One Belt, One Road” Strategy

Abstract

This article analyzes attitudes in Taiwan towards China's OBOR policy and how it may influence Taiwan. Based on my analysis, I have reached several conclusions regarding Taiwan's perspectives on OBOR. First, OBOR can be viewed as a reluctant policy of China, although China may benefit from it if it is successful. Second, Taiwan's opinion toward OBOR is largely shaped by the longstanding social cleavage between the Pan-Blue and Pan-Green camps similar to most other political issues in Taiwan. Third, OBOR is neither promising (due to the heterogeneity of the member states) nor is it considerably relevant to Taiwan (due to the limited economic connections between the member states and Taiwan). Fourth, both joining and not joining OBOR will raise security concerns for Taiwan. Fifth, regarding the current transformation of order underway in East Asia, Taiwan's advantage lies in the facts that Taiwan is one of the few advanced and democratic countries in the region and that both the United States and Japan plan to play a more active role in the Asia-Pacific region, which increases their incentive to cooperate with Taiwan. But Taiwan is disadvantaged by the unsolvable domestic cleavage between the Pan-Blue and the Pan-Green camps which precludes Taiwan from making a consistent long-term China policy.